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An ex-colonel from the special forces, government minister Al Carns was this week on manouevres cautioning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he said, in comments that exceed previous admonitions by his superior, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we rally the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was stark language from the 45-year-old born in Scotland MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of armed forces minister.

A Swift Political Ascent

And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being over-promoted as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough thought of whether they have the experience and political instincts to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the 2024 election. He was promoted later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his supporters began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no opening at the top. There is also a apprehension about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”